When I signed my solar contract in September 2022, the 30% federal tax credit had just been extended by the Inflation Reduction Act — something I’d been watching for months and wasn’t certain would actually happen. Module prices had spiked from the supply chain disruptions of 2021. My installer was quoting 12–14 week timelines because crews were backed up. And home batteries were expensive enough that most installers were steering customers away from them.
Three and a half years later, the landscape has shifted in ways that are mostly positive for homeowners considering solar now versus then — with a few complications worth understanding clearly.
What’s Gotten Better Since 2022
Panel prices have dropped. Solar module prices fell roughly 40–50% between 2022 and 2025, driven by massive manufacturing capacity expansion — particularly in Southeast Asia. The cost reduction has flowed into installed system prices, though not fully: labor, permitting, and overhead costs haven’t dropped at the same rate, so installed prices have come down 15–25% rather than 40–50%. A system that would have cost $32,000 installed in late 2022 is more likely to run $25,000–$28,000 in 2026 for comparable equipment.
Battery prices have followed. The Tesla Powerwall 3 (released at $11,500 installed when I bought my Powerwall 2 for essentially the same price) now competes with a growing field of alternatives — Enphase IQ Battery 5P, Franklin WH, Generac PWRcell — that have pushed pricing and pushed quality up simultaneously. The case for including battery storage with a new solar installation is stronger in 2026 than it was in 2022, partly because battery ROI has improved with lower prices and partly because time-of-use rate adoption has accelerated.
Installer quality has improved in most markets. The installer shakeout that follows every solar boom has happened. Installers who survived 2023–2024’s tighter market are generally better operations than the fly-by-nights that proliferated during the 2021–2022 rush. That doesn’t mean every installer is good — it means the average quality floor is higher.
Heat pump integration is mainstream. In 2022, “solar plus heat pump” was a niche conversation. In 2026, integrated quotes covering both systems — with stacked IRA credits — are common enough that most quality installers can handle both. The whole-home electrification path has become a real product, not just a theoretical option.
What’s Gotten More Complicated
Net metering policy is in active retreat. California’s NEM 3.0 was the loudest example, but the pattern is national. Utilities across the country have filed — and in many cases won — proposals to reduce export compensation, add fixed charges for solar customers, or move to time-varying export rates that reduce the value of midday solar production. The net metering landscape in 2026 is more fragmented than it was in 2022, and projecting future policy is harder than it was when full retail net metering was the presumptive default.
The practical implication: systems designed to run well under current net metering policy need to also be evaluated against what the policy might look like in years 8–15 of the payback period. Battery storage, which reduces grid export and therefore reduces net metering policy exposure, is more strategic in 2026 than it was in 2022 — not just for backup, but as policy hedge.
The IRA’s status creates planning uncertainty. The 30% federal ITC was extended through 2032 by the IRA. Political pressure on the IRA’s provisions is real and ongoing. I’m not going to predict legislative outcomes — nobody can. What I’ll say is that the credit is currently law, it applies to systems installed today, and banking it now rather than waiting to see what happens is the financially rational choice for anyone who was already considering solar.
Supply chain diversification is ongoing. Tariff actions on Chinese solar modules have pushed manufacturers to shift production to Southeast Asia and domestic US facilities — which affects pricing and availability in ways that aren’t fully settled. Module prices that dropped sharply in 2024 have seen some upward pressure in 2025–2026 from tariff uncertainty. The equipment market is less predictable than it was at either the peak (high prices, constrained supply, 2022) or the trough (very low prices, abundant supply, 2024).
What Still Doesn’t Make Sense in 2026
Leases and PPAs for homeowners who can qualify for cash or loan financing. The long-term value gap between ownership and third-party-owned systems has not narrowed — the math still heavily favors owners who capture the 30% ITC and keep the full value of net metering credits. The lease vs. buy analysis hasn’t changed structurally, even if the specific numbers have.
Oversized systems in markets where export compensation is declining. A system sized to produce 130% of your consumption was a reasonable strategy when excess credits were compensated at full retail. In NEM 3.0 California or in markets moving toward avoided-cost export rates, the economics of overproduction deteriorate. Right-sizing — 95–105% of consumption — is the more defensible approach in the current policy environment.
Solar on a home you’re planning to sell in 3 years. The home value premium from solar is real but doesn’t fully recover the investment in a short hold period. Solar is a long-hold asset. It makes sense if you’re staying.
The fundamentals haven’t changed. Solar is cheaper, batteries are better, and the federal incentive window is open. The policy environment is more complex than it was four years ago, and that complexity rewards homeowners who understand what they’re buying — not just the headline payback number, but the assumptions underneath it.
— Allen
